Who among us would have thought as we headed into 2008 last year that as we enter 2009 we would be entangled in a global economic recession that is being compared to the Great Depression that started in 1929? Even as we are being advised by the official and economic gurus at the centre of the meltdown that we will remain entangled until at least 2010, there is no certainty of good times soon – not for us here in Canada, despite our stronger economy and more conserving lifestyle, not for the US at the centre of the meltdown, and not for our Caricom homelands. Surely, the entanglement is not yet done; the worst of times are yet to come.
As we head into 2009, we look to the new presidential administration in the US to put its economy on the front burner – what it needs is a visionary and responsible shot-in-the-arm approach to be heard by economies around the world. We are assured that this new presidency is built on strong and responsible pillars, and that it would not repeat the follies of the outgoing and unimaginative administration which has helped take the entire world back to the nightmare of 1929.
In Canada, we look to the minority government returning to Ottawa later this month with a more responsible position that puts this country and its economy first. Our expectation is that the Harper government must work with the political parties and all Canadians to ensure that our nation weathers the global economic storm. It would not do to return with a similar and disappointing partisanship package which precipitated the historic events at a coalition government, and which led to the proroguing of Parliament last month.
Even as we work with our leaders in Canada, our thoughts turn to our Caricom homelands. The uncertainty in the years ahead is no excuse for leaders in these nations to place blame on the front steps of foreign governments – the pathology of decline in the economies of these Caricom nations is already noticeable and the imperative is on Caribbean leaders to ensure survival.
Economies in Jamaica, Haiti, Trinidad and Tobago and Guyana that depend heavily on remittances from abroad are already feeling the effects. As well, the signs are already apparent that the region’s tourism industry is being seriously affected – the recession hit countries such as the US and the UK at the start of the season last year. The banana industry in the Windward Islands and Jamaica is likely to continue to feel the effects. Jamaica will also suffer with the Russian slowdown in demand for bauxite-alumina. Guyana’s sugar and bauxite industries will also feel the effects of less demand. The reality is so stark that even the Bahamas – an economy built on tourism and financial services, and historically aloof from Caricom - has started to make its predicament known to the region.
Trinidad and Tobago too has been reassessing its position as one of the wealthier, oil-rich Caricom nations. This government was caught in the slips right after its record $50 billion dollar budget allotment for 2009. Riding the wave when oil was trading at US $140 a barrel, this government has since been forced to scale back its largesse spending and to cut back on billions of dollars worth of infrastructure.
As nations grapple with the reality of an economic crisis that is yet to hit its low point - as we look to the US for more responsible financial management and to Ottawa for a less partisan approach to governing - for Caricom we note the warning by the Jamaican Gleaner, which among other things, in a recent editorial called for Jamaica’s government to go on a “war-footing” and for the formation of a “crisis Cabinet” to deal with the hard times ahead. Undoubtedly, the acknowledgement of the crisis is a start, and the light to show the way out of the darkness ahead is through responsible leadership.
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