Even as we share the celebratory mood and the optimism that have come with the promise of a new presidency in the US, the question that needs to be answered for those of us with links to the Caribbean, as well as for its nationals – and especially with Trinidad and Tobago having one of the strongest economies there – is what does the victory by president-elect Barack Obama mean for this region.
It is understandable that the president-elect faces major foreign policy challenges in Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Russia, and would have to turn his gaze to dealing with the troubles in these arenas; too, that urgent attention is needed to deal with the tremendous financial pressures building in the US economy.
With this in mind, it appears unlikely that the Caribbean will occupy a position of prominence in the minds of the policy makers and peacemakers in Washington over the next four years. There is no doubt that the new US government needs to address greater and more pressing priorities inside its own house. It is then reasonable to think that putting the Caribbean’s needs on the front burner of the US agenda does not seem likely at this time.
Is it likely then, that the Democrats with president-elect Obama at the helm would either promote or hinder the free trade agenda? As we know, NAFTA had led to the lowering of global trade barriers, the consequence of which had seen concomitant increases in jobs and wealth. There has been at least one indication – president-elect Obama has called for the renegotiation of NAFTA with a view to improving environmental and labour standards; too, he has been decidedly lukewarm on some free trade agreements signed by outgoing president George Bush.
Given the likelihood there could eventually be renegotiation of NAFTA, there is yet another concern – this time in the corridors of power in Trinidad and Tobago, with the Manning government understanding that a direction the US is bound to take would be an energy policy to benefit its own job creation and wealth expansion – this, given the financial turmoil and double-digit trillion dollar debt being left behind as an unforgettable legacy by the outgoing Bush administration.
With the US facing such a major crisis, described by experts as similar to the terrible 1930s with its loss of wealth and jobs, it is understandable that restarting and protecting the economy could see a circling of the wagons by the new administration. In the end, president-elect Obama would be seeking the best interests of the American people who handed him the reins of power. For Trinidad and Tobago, having positioned itself to wholly depend on and benefit from its reserves of crude oil and natural gas, such short-sightedness could mean the worrisome eventuality of lower tax revenues.
However, despite the softening of the light and the start of areas of shadows in the bigger economic picture, there is still a tremendous sense of global goodwill and optimism over the political change in the US.
What is being appreciated around the world is many Americans gave the electoral go-ahead to president-elect Obama in order to leave behind a painful Republican legacy of hostility and ill-will around the globe, the result of policies that saw the globally unpopular invasion of Iraq and the nightmare of detentions and torture at Guantanamo Bay.
As well, a prominent wave in the confidence flowing around the world is Obama’s presidential victory has appealed to people of all races, religions and creeds in all nations. There is the feeling of a new direction, that a breakthrough has taken place in American history, stated so eloquently in the congratulatory words sent by South Africa’s president, Nelson Mandela: “Your victory has demonstrated that no person anywhere in the world should not dare to dream of wanting to change the world for a better place.”
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